Hello Mr Brown

Whenever a new leader assumes power all speculation comes to fruition. From Mr Bush in 2000 to Mr Howard of Canada to Mr Fico in Slovakia. This is the case for Gordon Brown who has become Britain’s new Prime Minister. Mr Brown is not new to politics or to the press, pundits, and analysts. Since, 1997 he has been Chancellor, a pact agreed upon with Tony Blair before Labour’s first electoral victory. With Mr Blair now gone, Mr Brown, the longest-serving British Chancellor since 1823, is able to achieve a life-long dream. In fulfilling this dream Mr Brown will have to face the shadow of his success over the past ten years and deal with an economy he can no longer control, a Cabinet, he is in charge of, but no longer a part of, and an opposition widely held by the British press more affable than he is. 

 

Mr Brown faces a burgeoning middle class increasingly frustrated with the super-rich. The question about Gordon Brown has always been this: is he too old Labour, too statist and egalitarian in his instincts to appeal to the English middle classes? One of the secrets of new Labour’s success was that it had it both ways. While Tony Blair in Number 10 spoke the language of the Barratt Homes estates, Brown let it be thought he was brooding over a different agenda in Number 11. He would raise taxes on the filthy rich, it was whispered, if only Blair would let him. Equally, Blair hinted he would press on faster with public service reform if Brown didn’t keep frustrating him. With each man suggesting he wasn’t fully in control, Labour continued to appeal to its new constituency while keeping most of its more traditional supporters on board. Today, he is all alone; there are no Blairites and Brownites. The Labour Party is renewing itself, not just in terms of the faces and personalities but also that sense of energy dynamism, going forward. The Brown era has begun.

 

For any aspiring Labour politician, saying ‘no’ to Prime Minister Gordon would be political suicide. Like all prime ministers he will be able to make his government in his own image, to a point. In such situations when there is a replacement of prime minister it is advisable, indeed precedence says, not to get rid of all the allies of the old PM. In Mr Brown’s case, sacking too many Blairites or appointing too many of his cronies will not go down well in the parliamentary party or with the press. So what will happen is that many current Cabinet members will remain: Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, Margaret Beckett, Douglas Alexander and Des Browne. Ruth Kelly, Hazel Blears and Jacqui Smith too will probably stay in Cabinet, but are most likely to move posts. Brownites Yvette Cooper, Harriet Harman, Ed Balls and Ed Miliband will join them; even Geoff Hoon could also make a return to Cabinet. Patricia Hewitt, Lord Falconer and Baroness Amos will probably leave the Cabinet. The big question is what Brown will do with Cultural Secretary Tessa Jowell, Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt, and John Hutton, most likely get rid of them, casualties to ego—Mr Brown’s. They are Blairites and Hutton in particular has been no friend of the new PM. Regardless, it will be a litmus test of just how forgiving Brown is prepared to be.

 

What is increasingly clear is just how significant a player Jack Straw will be in Brown’s first Cabinet, either as Chancellor or Home Secretary. Then again, either post may go to Alistair Darling too. Be prepared for surprises.

In U.S. politics presidential candidates choose running mates to extend their geographical and social appeal. The choice is entirely in the gift of whoever triumphs at their party convention. Gordon Brown wanted a running mate to serve the same purpose, reaching parts of the electorate a male Scot might not. He had to wait and hope that the Labour Party would deliver him the deputy leader he wanted. Justice Minister Harriet Harman was his choice. Mr Brown needed little persuading that a balanced top team of a man and a woman was best placed to help win Labour an unprecedented fourth term in Government. That was the message of the opinion polls. Paradoxically, Harman’s election takes some of the pressure off Brown in deciding which women to appoint to his Cabinet. Tony Blair had nine in his Cabinet and Brown will want to have at least as many. Newcomers will most likely include Yvette Cooper and Beverley Hughes. Of the current Cabinet the likely survivors are Margaret Beckett, Ruth Kelly and Hazel Blears all mentioned in the above paragraphs.

The secret weapon for the new prime minister is his wife. Since her marriage, Sarah Brown has been a self-effacing presence. More importantly, it would be near impossible for someone like the prickly, aloof, slightly unkempt figure that Gordon Brown was before Sarah Brown transformed his public persona, to be prime minister. She was always attractive but now she is groomed and, unlike Cherie Blair, she has an intuitive understanding of her own, understated, style. Be prepared for surprises!